Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns

Rugenstein, Maria

Marotzke, Jochem

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086773
Persistent URL: http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/8982
Abstract
Using seven single-model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large-scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets.
Subjects
sea surface temperature patternsinternal variability
global climate models
large ensembles
model evaluation