Beitrag zur Dürrerisiko-Abschätzung in der nördlichen Gezira-Ebene (Sudan)

As a contribution to the management of water resources in the Northern Gezira Plain, a study of the effects of statistically expected hydrologic droughts of longer persistence on the groundwater has been carried out. This required to set up a digital groundwater flow model. Special emphasis was laid on the interaction of the Blue Nile and White Nile with the groundwater. A sensitivity analysis using geostatistical methods was executed in order to show to which extent realistic groundwater model parameter configurations influence the simulation results and to determine the quality and applicability of the model. Two drought scenarios were evaluated. It could be shown that the resulting risk expressed by the amount of dry wells is negligible. […]