Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East
Almazroui, M.
Alpert, P.
Ciais, P.
Cramer, W.
Dahdal, Y.
Fnais, M.
Francis, D.
Hadjinicolaou, P.
Howari, F.
Jrrar, A.
Kaskaoutis, D. G.
Kulmala, M.
Lazoglou, G.
Mihalopoulos, N.
Lin, X.
Rudich, Y.
Sciare, J.
Stenchikov, G.
Xoplaki, E.
Lelieveld, J.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000762
Persistent URL: http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/10269
Almazroui, M.; 2 Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research Department of Meteorology King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia
Alpert, P.; 3 Department of Geophysics Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel
Ciais, P.; 1 Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE‐C) The Cyprus Institute Nicosia Cyprus
Cramer, W.; 5 Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE) Aix Marseille University CNRS IRD Avignon University Aix‐en‐Provence France
Dahdal, Y.; 6 Nature Palestine Society Jerusalem Palestine
Fnais, M.; 7 College of Sciences King Saud University Riyadh Saudi Arabia
Francis, D.; 8 Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab Khalifa University of Science and Technology Abu Dhabi UAE
Hadjinicolaou, P.; 1 Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE‐C) The Cyprus Institute Nicosia Cyprus
Howari, F.; 9 College of Natural and Health Sciences (CNHS) Zayed University Abu Dhabi UAE
Jrrar, A.; 10 Computational E‐Research Unit Advanced Research Centre Royal Scientific Society Amman Jordan
Kaskaoutis, D. G.; 11 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development National Observatory of Athens Athens Greece
Kulmala, M.; 13 Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics) University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
Lazoglou, G.; 1 Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE‐C) The Cyprus Institute Nicosia Cyprus
Mihalopoulos, N.; 11 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development National Observatory of Athens Athens Greece
Lin, X.; 4 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE) Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Paris France
Rudich, Y.; 14 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Weizmann Institute of Science Rehovot Israel
Sciare, J.; 1 Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE‐C) The Cyprus Institute Nicosia Cyprus
Stenchikov, G.; 15 King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal Saudi Arabia
Xoplaki, E.; 16 Department of Geography Justus Liebig University Giessen Giessen Germany
Abstract
Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
Key Points:
The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world.
Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean.
Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.
Subjects
climate changeEastern Mediterranean
Middle East
climate change impacts
Extreme events
regional climate models