GEO-LEOedocs LogoGEO-LEOedocs Logo
  • GEO-LEO
    • Deutsch
    • English
  • GEO-LEO
  • English 
    • Deutsch
    • English
  • Login
View Item 
  •   Home
  • Alle Publikationen
  • Geophysik, Extraterrestische Forschung
  • View Item
  •   Home
  • Alle Publikationen
  • Geophysik, Extraterrestische Forschung
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Year‐round sub‐seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic–European weather regimes

Büeler, DominikORCIDiD
Ferranti, LauraORCIDiD
Magnusson, LinusORCIDiD
Quinting, Julian F.ORCIDiD
Grams, Christian M.ORCIDiD
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4178
Persistent URL: http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9847
Büeler, Dominik; Ferranti, Laura; Magnusson, Linus; Quinting, Julian F.; Grams, Christian M., 2021: Year‐round sub‐seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic–European weather regimes. In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Band 147, 741: 4283 - 4309, DOI: 10.1002/qj.4178.
 
Thumbnail
View/Open
QJ_QJ4178.pdf (14.42Mb)
Metadata Export:
Endnote
BibTex
RIS
  • Abstract
Weather regime forecasts are a prominent use case of sub‐seasonal prediction in the midlatitudes. A systematic evaluation and understanding of year‐round sub‐seasonal regime forecast performance is still missing, however. Here we evaluate the representation of and forecast skill for seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes in sub‐seasonal reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Forecast calibration improves regime frequency biases and forecast skill most strongly in summer, but scarcely in winter, due to considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer. The average regime skill horizon in winter is about 5 days longer than in summer and spring, and 3 days longer than in autumn. The Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking tend to have the longest year‐round skill horizon, which is driven by their high persistence in winter. The year‐round skill is lowest for the European Blocking, which is common for all seasons but most pronounced in winter and spring. For the related, more northern Scandinavian Blocking, the skill is similarly low in winter and spring but higher in summer and autumn. We further show that the winter average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), but reduced following a weak SPV. Likewise, the year‐round average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following phases 4 and 7 of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) but reduced following phase 2, driven by winter but also autumn and spring. Our study thus reveals promising potential for year‐round sub‐seasonal regime predictions. Further model improvements can be achieved by reduction of the considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer, better understanding and modeling of blocking in the European region, and better exploitation of the potential predictability provided by weak SPV states and specific MJO phases in winter and the transition seasons.
 
The overall sub‐seasonal forecast performance (biases and skill) for predicting seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes is highest in winter and lowest in summer. The year‐round skill horizon is shortest for the European Blocking and longest for the Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking (see figure). Furthermore, the winter skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex but reduced following a weak one. Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 4 and 7 tend to increase and phase 2 to decrease the year‐round skill horizon.
Statistik:
View Statistics
Collection
  • Geophysik, Extraterrestische Forschung [826]
Subjects:
blocking
Europe
European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts
Madden–Julian Oscillation
stratospheric polar vortex
sub‐seasonal forecast
weather regimes
year‐round
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

ImpressumPrivacy (Opt-Out)About usDeposit LicenseSupport: fid-geo-digi@sub.uni-goettingen.de
DFGSUBFID GEOFID Montan
 

 

Submit here
Submission hints
Search hints

All of Geo-Leo e-docsCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateContributorsSubjectsPeriodicalsTitlesThis CollectionBy Issue DateContributorsSubjectsPeriodicalsTitles

Statistics

View Usage Statistics

ImpressumPrivacy (Opt-Out)About usDeposit LicenseSupport: fid-geo-digi@sub.uni-goettingen.de
DFGSUBFID GEOFID Montan