TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sudibyo, Maria R. P.
A1  - Eibl, Eva P. S.
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Hersir, Gylfi Páll
T1  - Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation Entropy
Y1  - 2022-10-01
VL  - 127
IS  - 10
JF  - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
DO  - 10.1029/2022JB024840
PB  - 
N2  - A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute‐long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15 s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions.
N2  - Plain Language Summary: When a volcano shows the first sign of activity, it is challenging to determine whether and when the actual eruption will occur. Usually, researchers create earthquake lists and locate these events to assess this. However, an alternative and simpler method can be directly applied to continuous seismic data. We tested a method that assesses the complexity of signals. We first created synthetic data to find reasonable parameter settings for this method. While volcanoes do not erupt very often, frequent eruptions at geysers allow us to systematically study and compare several eruptions. We analyzed the continuous record of 63 eruptions of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Our results show a distinct pattern that repeats from one eruption to the next one. We also find a clear pattern that indicates about 15 s before the next eruption that an eruption will occur. We show that this method performs better in eruption forecasting than assessing the seismic noise or silence caused by the geyser.
N2  - Key Points: Permutation Entropy (PE) is a simple tool to assess the complexity of a time series. We analyzed the PE evolution for 63 eruptive cycles of Strokkur geyser and found characteristic changes in PE during recharge. PE is found to be an useful statistical predictor of the eruption times and highlights the precursor 15 s before eruptions.
UR  - http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/10376
ER  -