TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hertig, Elke
A1  - Jahn, Sally
A1  - Kaspar‐Ott, Irena
T1  - Future Local Ground‐Level Ozone in the European Area From Statistical Downscaling Projections Considering Climate and Emission Changes
Y1  - 2023-02-13
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
JF  - Earth's Future
DO  - 10.1029/2022EF003317
PB  - 
N2  - Ground‐level ozone is a major air pollutant harmful to human health. In the scope of climate change, it is essential to provide high‐quality local‐scale assessments of the anticipated changes for public health and policy interventions. Assessments and projections of ground‐level ozone usually rely on numerical modeling, but statistical approaches are also available. The present study enhances the validity of statistical downscaling by taking climate change as well as air pollution changes into account. Besides considering meteorological predictors such as air temperature, short‐wave radiation, humidity, and wind, ozone trends from changes in precursor emissions were included in the statistical models. Meteorological and ozone predictor information extracted from reanalysis data for the observational period and output of seven Earth System Models (ESMs) for the projection periods were used, with three of them having interactive chemical modeling, while the other four used prescribed ozone changes. Ground‐level ozone, more precisely daily maximum 8‐hr running means (MDA8) as well as daily maximum 1‐hr values (MDA1), at 798 measurement stations across the European area in the “ozone season” from April to September were assessed. Results depended strongly on whether only meteorological information or additional information about emission changes were considered. As a general picture under the consideration of climate and emission changes, decreasing ground‐level ozone concentrations were projected under the moderate SSP2‐4.5 scenario, while for the more pessimistic scenario SSP3‐7.0 increasing ozone concentrations over Europe, especially at the end of the 21st century, were assessed.
N2  - Plain Language Summary: Ground‐level ozone is a gaseous air pollutant that is formed under sunlight from other air pollutants. Ground‐level ozone is harmful to human health. There are concerns that under climate change, ground‐level ozone will increase. To assess changes on local‐scale various methods are available, which can roughly be divided into numerical models and statistical approaches. The present study developed statistical models further, to give a more realistic picture of future changes in ground‐level ozone in the European area. Information about meteorological changes such as air temperature, atmospheric humidity, and wind as well as changes in air pollutants like nitrogen oxides was considered. During the 21st century decreasing ground‐level ozone concentrations were projected under a moderate climate change scenario, while for a more pessimistic scenario increasing ozone concentrations over Europe, especially at the end of the century, were assessed. This result highlights the necessity to further reduce greenhouse gases and air pollution, bringing forth better protection of human health.
N2  - Key Points: Precursor emission changes are represented by the inclusion of ozone trend in the statistical downscaling models. Statistical projections results are sensitive to the predictor types and Earth System Model output used. Climate change scenarios have a major impact on future ozone, and greenhouse gas and air pollution reductions can mitigate health risks.
UR  - http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/11652
ER  -