TY  - JOUR
A1  - Merz, Bruno
A1  - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1  - Kunz, Michael
A1  - Pittore, Massimiliano
A1  - Babeyko, Andrey
A1  - Bresch, David N.
A1  - Domeisen, Daniela I. V.
A1  - Feser, Frauke
A1  - Koszalka, Inga
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Pantillon, Florian
A1  - Parolai, Stefano
A1  - Pinto, Joaquim G.
A1  - Punge, Heinz Jürgen
A1  - Rivalta, Eleonora
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Strehlow, Karen
A1  - Weisse, Ralf
A1  - Wurpts, Andreas
T1  - Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards
Y1  - 2020
VL  - 58
IS  - 4
JF  - Reviews of Geophysics
DO  - 10.1029/2020RG000704
DO  - 10.23689/fidgeo-4620
N2  - Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.
UR  - http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/8966
ER  -