TY  - JOUR
A1  - Olonscheck, Dirk
A1  - Rugenstein, Maria
A1  - Marotzke, Jochem
T1  - Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns
Y1  - 2020
VL  - 47
IS  - 10
JF  - Geophysical Research Letters
DO  - 10.1029/2019GL086773
DO  - 10.23689/fidgeo-4636
N2  - Using seven single-model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large-scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets.
UR  - http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/8982
ER  -