TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rugenstein, Maria
A1  - Bloch-Johnson, Jonah
A1  - Gregory, Jonathan
A1  - Andrews, Timothy
A1  - Mauritsen, Thorsten
A1  - Li, Chao
A1  - Frölicher, Thomas L.
A1  - Paynter, David
A1  - Danabasoglu, Gokhan
A1  - Yang, Shuting
A1  - Dufresne, Jean-Louis
A1  - Cao, Long
A1  - Schmidt, Gavin A.
A1  - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
A1  - Geoffroy, Olivier
A1  - Knutti, Reto
T1  - Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models
Y1  - 2020
VL  - 47
IS  - 4
JF  - Geophysical Research Letters
DO  - 10.1029/2019GL083898
DO  - 10.23689/fidgeo-4815
N2  - The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial-length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid-latitudes. Time-dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.
UR  - http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9161
ER  -