TY - JOUR A1 - Marzeion, Ben A1 - Hock, Regine A1 - Anderson, Brian A1 - Bliss, Andrew A1 - Champollion, Nicolas A1 - Fujita, Koji A1 - Huss, Matthias A1 - Immerzeel, Walter W. A1 - Kraaijenbrink, Philip A1 - Malles, Jan-Hendrik A1 - Maussion, Fabien A1 - Radi?, Valentina A1 - Rounce, David R. A1 - Sakai, Akiko A1 - Shannon, Sarah A1 - van de Wal, Roderik A1 - Zekollari, Harry T1 - Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change Y1 - 2020 VL - 8 IS - 7 JF - Earth's Future DO - 10.1029/2019EF001470 DO - 10.23689/fidgeo-5140 N2 - Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections. UR - http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9486 ER -