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Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Zittis, G.ORCIDiD
Almazroui, M.ORCIDiD
Alpert, P.ORCIDiD
Ciais, P.ORCIDiD
Cramer, W.ORCIDiD
Dahdal, Y.ORCIDiD
Fnais, M.
Francis, D.ORCIDiD
Hadjinicolaou, P.ORCIDiD
Howari, F.ORCIDiD
Jrrar, A.ORCIDiD
Kaskaoutis, D. G.ORCIDiD
Kulmala, M.ORCIDiD
Lazoglou, G.ORCIDiD
Mihalopoulos, N.ORCIDiD
Lin, X.ORCIDiD
Rudich, Y.ORCIDiD
Sciare, J.ORCIDiD
Stenchikov, G.ORCIDiD
Xoplaki, E.ORCIDiD
Lelieveld, J.ORCIDiD
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000762
Persistent URL: http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/10269
Supplement: https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/esgf-liu/
Zittis, G.; Almazroui, M.; Alpert, P.; Ciais, P.; Cramer, W.; Dahdal, Y.; Fnais, M.; Francis, D.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Howari, F.; Jrrar, A.; Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Kulmala, M.; Lazoglou, G.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Lin, X.; Rudich, Y.; Sciare, J.; Stenchikov, G.; Xoplaki, E.; Lelieveld, J., 2022: Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. In: Reviews of Geophysics, Band 60, 3, DOI: 10.1029/2021RG000762.
 
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  • Abstract
Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
 
Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean. Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.
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  • Geophysik, Extraterrestische Forschung [941]
Subjects:
climate change
Eastern Mediterranean
Middle East
climate change impacts
Extreme events
regional climate models
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

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