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Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe

Wood, R. R.ORCIDiD
Ludwig, R.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089300
Persistent URL: http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9300
Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R., 2020: Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe. In: Geophysical Research Letters, Band 47, 17, DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089300.
 
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  • Abstract
At regional to local scales internal variability is expected to be a dominant source of uncertainty in analyzing precipitation extremes and mean precipitation even far into the 21st century. A debated topic is whether a faster increase in subdaily precipitation extremes can be expected. Here we analyzed seasonal maximum precipitation in various time steps (3 hr, days, and 5 days) from a high-resolution 50-member large-ensemble (CRCM5-LE) and compared them to changes in mean precipitation over Europe. Our results show that the magnitude of change in extreme precipitation varies for season and duration. Subdaily extremes increase at higher rates than daily extremes and show higher scaling with temperature. Northern Europe shows widespread scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron of subdaily extremes in all seasons and for daily extremes in winter/spring. Scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron is also visible over Eastern Europe in winter/spring. For most regions and seasons the forced response emerges from the internal variability by midcentury.
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  • Geophysik, Extraterrestische Forschung [836]
Subjects:
large ensembles
SMILEs
Regional Climate Model
precipitation extremes
subdaily
Europe
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

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