Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe

Abstract

At regional to local scales internal variability is expected to be a dominant source of uncertainty in analyzing precipitation extremes and mean precipitation even far into the 21st century. A debated topic is whether a faster increase in subdaily precipitation extremes can be expected. Here we analyzed seasonal maximum precipitation in various time steps (3 hr, days, and 5 days) from a high-resolution 50-member large-ensemble (CRCM5-LE) and compared them to changes in mean precipitation over Europe. Our results show that the magnitude of change in extreme precipitation varies for season and duration. Subdaily extremes increase at higher rates than daily extremes and show higher scaling with temperature. Northern Europe shows widespread scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron of subdaily extremes in all seasons and for daily extremes in winter/spring. Scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron is also visible over Eastern Europe in winter/spring. For most regions and seasons the forced response emerges from the internal variability by midcentury.